Ever wished you could peek into the future and know what next season's weather might bring? Well, in the world of meteorology (or, more generally, Earth system predictability), seasonal forecasting is where you want to look for a glimpse of the future. Seasonal forecasting bridges the gap between our familiar short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections, offering insights into what might happen weeks, months, or even up to two years into the future.
Seasonal forecasting covers a time frame from 6 weeks to 2 years into the future. Seasonal forecasting is completely different when compared to your daily weather app. We're not talking about predicting whether it'll rain next Tuesday - instead, we're looking at broader patterns.
Will this winter be colder than usual?
Will there be a decent snowpack in January?
How much will it rain next spring?
Is next summer likely to be warmer and drier than normal?
These are the kinds of questions seasonal forecasts aim to answer.
If you’re wondering: how on earth can we predict that far ahead when we struggle to forecast the weather more than two weeks out? Great question! The secret lies beneath the waves - in our oceans.
While the atmosphere has a notoriously short memory (hence the two-week limit on weather forecasts), the ocean is like that friend who never forgets anything. The vast bodies of water that cover most of our planet have an incredible capacity to store and slowly release heat, creating patterns that can persist for months or even years.
This long memory of the oceans is what gives seasonal forecasting its predictive power. By carefully monitoring data from sea surface temperatures, ocean currents, and co-evolving large-scale atmospheric patterns, scientists can get a sense of how these slow-changing components of the Earth system might influence weather patterns over the coming months.
One of the poster children for seasonal forecasting is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This large-scale climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean can have far-reaching effects on weather around the globe. When meteorologists detect the early signs of an El Niño or La Niña event developing, it gives them valuable clues about how seasonal weather patterns might unfold in different parts of the world.
But let's be clear - seasonal forecasting isn't about pinpointing exact temperatures or rainfall amounts months in advance. Instead, it deals in probabilities and tendencies. A seasonal forecast might tell you that the upcoming winter has a 60% chance of being warmer than average in your region, or that there's an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall during the spring months.
This kind of information might not help you decide whether to pack an umbrella for next week's outing, but it can be incredibly valuable for all types of long-term planning:
Farmers can use seasonal forecasts to inform their planting decisions.
Energy companies might adjust their resource allocations based on expected heating or cooling needs.
Water managers can prepare for potential droughts or flood risks.
Now, you might be thinking, "This sounds great, but how accurate are these forecasts really?" And that's a fair question.
The truth is, seasonal forecasting is a challenging field, and the skill of these forecasts can vary quite a bit depending on the region and time of year. Some areas of the world, particularly those strongly influenced by ENSO (like the Americas and the Asian-Pacific) or other large-scale patterns (like the NAO, which impacts European weather), tend to be more predictable than others.
It's also worth noting that the further into the future we try to peer, the more uncertain our forecasts become. That's why you'll often see seasonal forecasts presented as three-month averages, rather than trying to predict conditions for specific weeks or months far in advance.
Despite these challenges, seasonal forecasts are an invaluable tool. Planette’s seasonal environmental forecasts tap into the long memory of our oceans and combine sophisticated AI-enhanced models with our deep understanding of Earth's climate system to give your business a glimpse of what’s beyond the horizon.
Planette’s seasonal forecasts are some of the most accurate on the planet. We deliver environmental forecasts for temperature, precipitation, 100-m wind, solar irradiance, humidity, extreme weather events and more in the critical 2 weeks to 2 year time horizon with greater than 90% accuracy over a 25-km grid, worldwide. If you’re in an industry that could benefit from quality seasonal forecasts, request a free trial account today.
Remember that in the grand Earth system, everything is connected - from the depths of the oceans to the weather outside our windows.
