Umi™, Planette’s world-class El Nino / La Nina forecasting system, is now 4 months old. This means that we now have 4 rounds of Umi™ forecasts that we can compare to observed conditions, to gauge the real-world performance of the Umi™ forecasting system. We can also compare Umi™’s performance to other advanced Niño 3.4 forecasting systems, to see how Umi™ did relative to the competition. Of course, evaluating backtest accuracy is the most statistically-robust means of evaluating model performance, but there’s something very satisfying about looking at a model’s performance in real time.
TLDR: most models predicted La Niña conditions developing over the late summer and fall, while Planette’s Umi™ predicted neutral conditions. What actually transpired was neutral conditions over the summer and early fall.
A Detailed Analysis
June 2024 - The First Umi™ Forecast: Following last year’s Super El Niño, most models were bullish on a La Niña (see the average of the dynamic models reported on IRI in pink, and the spread of these models, shown in gray). Umi™, however, along with models like ECMWF, were much less bullish on a La Niña, and predicted neutral conditions over the next several months. The thick black line shows what actually happened, confirming neutral conditions from July to September, 2024.
July 2024 Forecast: Now, as we look at forecasts issued in July 2024, many of the models became even more bullish on a La Niña developing (see the Multi-Model Mean from IRI in pink, and the spread of the IRI models in gray). Umi™, consistent with its June forecast and in agreement with models like ECMWF, maintained its prediction of neutral conditions. This forecast proved accurate for what actually happened in July and August 2024.
August 2024 Forecast: We see a similar story for forecasts issued in August 2024. Once again, Umi™ correctly predicted neutral conditions for September 2024.
September 2024 Forecast: Finally, let’s take a look at forecasts issued in September 2024. As of early October, the Niño 3.4 index for October 2024 isn't yet available, so we can’t evaluate forecast quality yet. We can see that the IRI models have once again veered towards a strong La Niña developing over the coming fall and winter, though Umi™ has maintained its forecast of neutral conditions.
Future Outlook: We’re excited to see what the coming months will bring, and whether the tropical Pacific will hold steady at neutral conditions, like it has over the past 4 months, or whether it’ll shift towards a La Niña. Umi™'s continued accuracy in these forecasts demonstrates its value in predicting El Niño / La Niña events.
If you want free access to Umi™, the most accurate Niño 3.4 forecast on the planet, you can register here.
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